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A política externa da Arábia Saudita a partir de 2015. Mudanças e Continuidades
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O ano de 2015 foi transformador para a última monarquia absoluta do mundo. A Arábia Saudita, governada por Mohammad Bin Salman, entrou na era do pós-petróleo, com todas as consequências económico-sociais trazidas pelo seu novo contexto interno. Do seu ambiente interno e regional emanam as maiores ameaças à sua segurança, sobrevivência e continuidade. As bases que sustentam o contrato social que tem mantido o reino saudita coeso e unido em torno do seu monarca podem estar a ruir. O antagonismo Irão-Arábia Saudita manifesta-se em diversas proxy wars, sendo que a partir de 2015 materializou-se na instrumentalização do conflito do Iémen pelos dois antagonistas, que usam a clivagem xiitas/sunitas em proveito das suas agendas regionais. Uma das maiores ameaças à sobrevivência da Arábia Saudita seria a formação de um “arco xiita” perto do seu território, liderado pelo Irão. A política regional que a Arábia Saudita desenvolve, no seu novo contexto pós-2015, visa contrabalançar a influência iraniana, criando um “crescente sunita”. Continuará a ser no contexto global que a Arábia Saudita irá tentar mitigar as ameaças do contexto interno e regional, seja na sua relação com os Estados Unidos, seja através da procura de novos aliados internacionais. Esta é uma análise compreensiva da Política Externa da Arábia Saudita, na qual queremos saber que características novas apresenta, desde 2015, a Política Externa saudita, e em que medida essas características representam, ou não, uma rutura com o passado, dado o novo contexto pós-2015.
The year of 2015 was transformative for the world's last absolute monarchy. Saudi Arabia, ruled by Mohammad Bin Salman, has entered the post-oil era, with all the economic and social consequences brought about by its new internal context. From its internal and regional environment emanate the greatest threats to its security, survival and continuity. The foundations underpinning the social contract that has kept the Saudi kingdom cohesive and united around its monarch may be collapsing. The Iran-Saudi Arabia antagonism manifests itself in various proxy wars, and since 2015 it has materialized in the instrumentalization of the Yemen conflict by the two antagonists, who use the Shia/Sunni divide to the advantage of their regional agendas. One of the biggest threats to Saudi Arabia's survival would be the formation of a "Shiite arc" near its territory, led by Iran. The regional policy that Saudi Arabia develops, in its new post-2015 context, aims to counterbalance Iranian influence by creating a "Sunni crescent." It will continue to be in the global context that Saudi Arabia will attempt to mitigate threats from the domestic and regional context, whether in its relationship with the United States or through seeking new international allies. This is a comprehensive analysis of Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy, in which we want to know what new features Saudi Foreign Policy presents since 2015, and to what extent these features represent, or not, a rupture with the past, given the new post-2015 context.
The year of 2015 was transformative for the world's last absolute monarchy. Saudi Arabia, ruled by Mohammad Bin Salman, has entered the post-oil era, with all the economic and social consequences brought about by its new internal context. From its internal and regional environment emanate the greatest threats to its security, survival and continuity. The foundations underpinning the social contract that has kept the Saudi kingdom cohesive and united around its monarch may be collapsing. The Iran-Saudi Arabia antagonism manifests itself in various proxy wars, and since 2015 it has materialized in the instrumentalization of the Yemen conflict by the two antagonists, who use the Shia/Sunni divide to the advantage of their regional agendas. One of the biggest threats to Saudi Arabia's survival would be the formation of a "Shiite arc" near its territory, led by Iran. The regional policy that Saudi Arabia develops, in its new post-2015 context, aims to counterbalance Iranian influence by creating a "Sunni crescent." It will continue to be in the global context that Saudi Arabia will attempt to mitigate threats from the domestic and regional context, whether in its relationship with the United States or through seeking new international allies. This is a comprehensive analysis of Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy, in which we want to know what new features Saudi Foreign Policy presents since 2015, and to what extent these features represent, or not, a rupture with the past, given the new post-2015 context.
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Arábia Saudita Política Externa Médio Oriente Golfo Pérsico Transição económica Economia redistributiva Autocracia Monarquia absoluta Continuidade Transformação Petróleo Saudi Arabia Foreign Policy Middle East Persian Gulf Economic transition Redistributive economy Autocracy Absolute monarchy Continuity Transformation Oil