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Treasury bond returns and U.S. political cycles
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Resumo(s)
This work-project complements the existing studies on the linkage between financial
investments returns and the political cycles, by relating Treasury bond returns and
Presidential cycles. Previous research shows that stock market tends to behave better
during Democratic presidencies, and in this work it is shown a compatible result, with
long-term Treasury bonds having higher absolute, and excess returns during Republican
Administrations. This difference is not explained by business cycles and there are no
significant differences in risk, as measured by the volatility of returns, between the two
political cycles. Empirical evidence is also found showing that there are better economic
and financial conditions to invest in T-bonds' markets during Republican than during
Democratic Administrations.
Descrição
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
Palavras-chave
Treasury bond returns Political cycles Political economy