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Do property taxes a ect fertility? Quasi-experimental evidence from Portugal
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Resumo(s)
This paper uses a property tax decrease to obtain causal estimates of the impact
of taxes on household fertility decisions. We combine administrative data on
all births occurred in Portugal between 2004 and 2011 with scal, demographic and
political data on 278 municipalities in mainland Portugal. Through a Di erencein-
Di erences strategy, we found that muncipalities that were forced to decrease
property tax faced an increase in fertility comparing to their counterfactual. Additionally,
we show that these e ects are larger in households in which the mother is
either portuguese, less educated or unemployed. The result is driven by second and
higher order births.
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Palavras-chave
Fertility Property tax Income