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Tourism in Portugal: dynamics, persistence and impact
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Resumo(s)
This study presents an empirical evaluation of the impact of tourism on the Portuguese
economy. We use a two-step FAVAR with a ve principal component
estimation to nest the e ect of tourism in other 127 macroeconomic variables.
Our ndings point to some channels in which tourism can help an economy develop
and recover from a crisis. The overall e ect on the variables is positive, but
the most prominent dynamics concern the labour market. The variance decomposition,
with an R2 ranging from 29.7% to 89.0%, is more robust in indicators
such as Unemployment (14.0%) and Industrial Employment Index (18.3%). It
also accounts for 3.7% of the overall Economic Sentiment Indicator, showing
improvements in economic agents' expectations. Finally, the representation of
tourism shocks along time backs the hypothesis of tourism helping the Portuguese
economy in recovering from a nancial crisis
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Tourism Portugal FAVAR Dynamic factor models Macroeconomics.