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Taking the pulse of the real economy using financial statement analysis: the european perspective
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Resumo(s)
This article shows that an analysis of aggregated changes in profitability and profitability
drivers is useful to forecast European economic growth. Furthermore the predictive power
contained in profitability ratios is incremental and thus complementary to that contained in
stock returns. Although European professional forecasters tend to incorporate equity
returns and accounting information in their revisions of output growth expectations, their
prediction errors can be anticipated based on aggregate changes in Return on Equity, Net
Profit Margin and on stock returns. It implies that macro experts do not fully rely on easily
available information to forecast E.U real GDP growth.
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Palavras-chave
Financial statement analysis Pprofitability GDP growth forecasting Macroeconomics European Union