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A scenario based approach on how non-vessel operating common carriers can challenge the uncertain environment of ocean carriers
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The aim of this work is in the first step to uncover different possible scenarios Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers (NVOCCs) might face in the near future. In the second step, early warning signals and strategic implementations have been developed to allow NVOCCs better preparation and proactive actions to master upcoming challenges.
Due to the unpredictable Ocean Freight market, the scenario based planning approach is used to allow a broad view on possible future scenarios.
Qualitative interviews with industry experts have been conducted to gain insights into major challenges and uncertainties.
The two main critical uncertainties - rate volatility and carrier consolidations – form the basis for four different possible future scenarios. Rates might stabilize or remain volatile; carriers might consolidate into fewer players on the market or might join in alliances. Full transparency regarding the carrier’s financial situation is key to foresee critical situations. Stable long-term contracts with carriers and customers allow better planning. Service differentiation and quality lead to customer loyalty, which could lead to secure the business in difficult times.
This work summarizes different influence factors of the ocean freight industry and serves as a basis to support future strategic implementations.