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The hot hand in professional darts
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This paper examines whether a hot hand in professional darts exists or the people’s belief in
players performing better after experiencing recent success is a fallacy. By the means of five
hot hand statistics, tested in an individual and pooled player analysis, I have found substantial
evidence for the existence of the hot hand for the great majority of players. Players hit more
often after previous hits than misses, their throw outcomes are clustered and hit streaks appear
more often and are longer than expected. Concluding from these results, the economic
relevance of the hot hand fallacy should be reconsidered.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Hot-hand fallacy Hot-hand effect Behavioural economics