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The fiscal policy in Brazil: a TVAR approach
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Following Ferraresi et al. (2015), this work studies the relationship between fiscal policy and gdp growth and different fiscal multipliers given different credit market conditions in developing countries. This study focus on the brazilian economy and estimates a Threshold VAR utilizing brazilian quarterly data from 1996-2014. Although higher fiscal multipliers are found when the brazilian credit market is tight and lower ones when the market is normal, there is no statistical significance in these results. Additionally, a robustness check is made by changing the threshold variable from credit outstanding of houlseholds to credit outstanding of the industry. The results found also imply the idea of different responses depending on the credit market regime of Brazil. Therefore, the results go in line with international literature for developed countries, but also confirm the hypothesis that countries with less efficient financial markets have stronger fiscal multiplier results.
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TVAR model Girf Fiscal policy Credit market Fiscal multipliers