Regulatory events and price volatility in the EU ETS: an event study of EUA futures (2021–2024).[Navigating carbon markets: opportunities for corporations with net zero targets in an evolving regulatory landscape]

Abstract

This Work Project examines how EUA futures prices under the EU ETS respond to major policy and geopolitical events. Using an event study approach, it analyses six events between 2021 and 2024, measuring shifts in returns and volatility. Results show that surprise and ambiguity drive stronger market reactions than policy ambition alone. Predictable events trigger modest adjustments, while unexpected developments cause sharper repricing. These insights help explain how carbon markets absorb information — and can support companies like EDP in anticipating risk, interpreting market signals, and aligning their decarbonization strategies with policy dynamics.