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Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management
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Background: Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement. Objectives: This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation. Methods: Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios. Results: Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement. Conclusions: The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC.
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Funding Information:
This research was co-funded by the “Population Health Information Research Infrastructure” (PHIRI) Project funded by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union (grant agreement N° 101018317), by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. through the project UID/00667: Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial and by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, I.P. by 2023.00994.BD (https://doi.org/10.54499/2023.00994.BD). In both cases, the funding bodies provided financial support for the research, without being involved in the analysis or writing the article.
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© 2025 The Authors
Palavras-chave
Chronic diseases Complex Decision-Making Digital health Foresight Primary healthcare Strategic scenarios Business and International Management Applied Psychology Management of Technology and Innovation SDG 9 - Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure SDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production SDG 13 - Climate Action