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Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management

Publication . Peyroteo, Mariana; Lapão, Luís Velez; DEMI - Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial; UNIDEMI - Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial; Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT); Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam.

Background: Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement. Objectives: This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation. Methods: Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios. Results: Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement. Conclusions: The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC.

2025-11Artigo científico

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Entidade financiadora

European Commission

Programa de financiamento

H2020

Número da atribuição

101018317