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Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management

2025-11Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorPeyroteo, Mariana
dc.contributor.authorLapão, Luís Velez
dc.contributor.institutionDEMI - Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
dc.contributor.institutionUNIDEMI - Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
dc.contributor.institutionInstituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT)
dc.contributor.pblElsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam.
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-01T22:02:19Z
dc.date.available2025-09-01T22:02:19Z
dc.date.issued2025-11
dc.descriptionFunding Information: This research was co-funded by the “Population Health Information Research Infrastructure” (PHIRI) Project funded by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union (grant agreement N° 101018317), by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. through the project UID/00667: Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial and by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, I.P. by 2023.00994.BD (https://doi.org/10.54499/2023.00994.BD). In both cases, the funding bodies provided financial support for the research, without being involved in the analysis or writing the article. Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors
dc.description.abstractBackground: Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement. Objectives: This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation. Methods: Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios. Results: Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement. Conclusions: The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent15
dc.format.extent3044632
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290
dc.identifier.issn0040-1625
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 128438533
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 1b3a1bf3-18df-4d48-baf3-31ff8021f621
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105011488542
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001541759700001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/187352
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105011488542
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001541759700001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101018317/EU
dc.relationPopulation Health Information Research Infrastructure
dc.relationEstimating the Value of Digital Health Services: Multimorbidity Management in Primary Health Care in Portugal
dc.subjectChronic diseases
dc.subjectComplex Decision-Making
dc.subjectDigital health
dc.subjectForesight
dc.subjectPrimary healthcare
dc.subjectStrategic scenarios
dc.subjectBusiness and International Management
dc.subjectApplied Psychology
dc.subjectManagement of Technology and Innovation
dc.subjectSDG 9 - Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
dc.subjectSDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.titleStrategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care managementen
dc.title.subtitleA 10-year foresight case study in Lisbon's primary healthcare settingen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.firstPage1
degois.publication.lastPage15
degois.publication.titleTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
degois.publication.volume220
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumber101018317
oaire.awardNumber2023.00994.BD
oaire.awardTitlePopulation Health Information Research Infrastructure
oaire.awardTitleEstimating the Value of Digital Health Services: Multimorbidity Management in Primary Health Care in Portugal
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101018317/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//2023.00994.BD/PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
relation.isProjectOfPublication4e149338-3b6f-408a-a51a-4c6ce8bc72f9
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd8ac6e53-6286-4e84-860a-acf8e3efd472
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4e149338-3b6f-408a-a51a-4c6ce8bc72f9

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