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The distance paradox: how proximity to Syrian refugees shapes political and economic attitudes in the Middle East and North Africa
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This study examines how the Syrian refugee crisis has shaped public attitudes across the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA). Through the combined work of the Field Lab, we analyze
Political and Economic attitudes (Johannes Ludwig’s contribution) and Social and Religious
attitudes (Bianca Illing’s contribution) in MENA. Using Arab Barometer and UNHCR data
(2010–2023), we analyze public opinion in Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia. A
gravity-style shift-share IV strategy shows that refugee exposure increases trust in government,
economic optimism, and social cohesion, while also reinforcing conservative religious views.
Effects are strongest among Muslim respondents, highlighting cultural proximity as a key driver
of opinion and extending Intergroup Contact Theory beyond Western contexts. These findings
advance the understanding of key drivers in shaping public responses to migration in
developing regions.
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Arab barometer UNHCR Syrian immigration Public opinion Institutional trust Religion-based attitudes Contact theory Shift-share instrument MENA region