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The trade impact of the European carbon border adjustment mechanism on two African economies
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The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a European Union Counter measrue policy against carbon leakage. This study explores the quantitative impact of the
policy on export trade flows with Mozambique and South Africa - two African economies
closely tied to the EU and heavily involved in CBAM-targeted product categories, as well
as presenting little to none carbon pricing. The emission analysis is carried out using the
EORA global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework, consistent with established
practices in the literature, with Eaton–Kortum elasticities and a PPML structural-gravity
model to estimate tariffs and export shifts. Findings indicate CBAM-exposed goods repre sent 2.2% of South Africa’s exports but 13% of Mozambique’s, with unwrought aluminium
and pig iron facing duties up to 30% and 37%. When full Scope 1 + 2 pricing is applied,
South Africa’s CBAM-exposed exports contract by 26%, while Mozambique’s aluminium
exports could fall by as much as 61%. Decarbonising electricity and strengthening domestic
carbon pricing emerge as mitigations.
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Trade Carbon accounting Structural gravity model Elasticity of trade Climate policy