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Equity research on CTT Correios de Portugal – stamped for success or lost in transit? The case for Locky’s expansion to Spain
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| 3.11 MB | Adobe PDF |
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CTT is the key player in the logistics and postal sector in Portugal and Spain, with
a growing presence in financial services. This thesis conducts an equity research
analysis of the company, leading to a buy recommendation. CTT is an undervalued
business with the strategy, resources, and incentives to drive growth and strong
investor returns. Despite its legacy mail operations, it has successfully leveraged its
infrastructure to expand into logistics and banking. Express & Parcels (E&P) has
become a key revenue driver, strengthening CTT’s position as a major Iberian
player, while Banco CTT continues to grow rapidly. The valuation is supported by
a detailed breakdown of revenue drivers, sensitivity analysis, and an assessment of
CTT’s capital structure. Market consensus further aligns with this outlook,
reinforcing confidence in its long-term potential.
The study then examines CTT’s strategic expansion of its Locky smart locker
service into Spain, a move aimed at optimizing last-mile delivery and capitalizing
on the rising demand for parcel solutions. The research evaluates market potential,
competition, and financial feasibility. While Spain presents strong growth
opportunities, challenges such as technological adoption and competition must be
addressed. By successfully executing this strategy, CTT can establish itself as a
strong player in the Spanish smart locker market and further solidify its position as
the leading Iberian logistics provider.
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CTT valuation Smart lockers Market sizing E-commerce