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Economic analysis of the Vodafone / NOWO decision by the Portuguese Competition Authority

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Arguments behind the AdC’s prohibition of Vodafone’s acquisition of Nowo are examined. Market structure analysis is conducted, and effects on concentration are compared with thresholds in the merger guidelines of the EC, AdC and DoJ. A cross-section empirical study, using own collected data estimates Nowo’s presence effect on probability of discounts for the largest operators, estimated by linear probability models and propensity score matching. The impact of Digi’s entry is considered, as market structure analysis is re-estimated to account for a 5 to 4 merger. The main results of this analysis corroborate AdC’s decision of blocking the merger.

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Competition Telecommunications Portugal Horizontal concentrations Cross-section Competition Authority

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