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Monetary policy evolution in Turkey: recursive analysis of inflation responsiveness through structural breaks and unorthodox strategies
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Resumo(s)
This study investigates the variability of the inflation response coefficient (β) in Turkey’s
monetary policy within the Taylor rule framework, as a key driver of high inflation since early
2005. Recursive analysis identifies three structural breaks: in 2010, 2022, and 2023. These
breaks correspond to a shift in monetary policy towards a Neo-Fisherian approach, which
ultimately destabilized inflation expectations and eroded central bank credibility. The 2023
return to orthodox strategies shows signs of stabilization, suggesting that conventional
approaches are more effective in controlling inflation than Neo-Fisherian approaches.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Taylor rule Neo-fisher effect Inflation response coefficient (ß) Recursive estimation