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On the causes of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado: deforestation and illegality
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Cabo Delgado, a province in northern Mozambique, has been under conflict since 2017. The
province has also been affected by illegal logging for over two decades. We use georeferenced
data (0.2 × 0.2 decimal degree level) on forest cover loss to comprehend the impact of the
exploitation of timber on this insurgency, for the period 2017-2020. Resorting to exogenous
international prices, our findings suggest that illegal logging is linked with a higher risk of
conflict, whereas legal wood exploitation reduces it. The discovery of natural gas in the region
also appears to increase conflict incidence through the forestry industry.
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Conflict Deforestation Timber Natural resources Cabo delgado Mozambique Disaggregated data