On the causes of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado: deforestation and illegality

Abstract

Cabo Delgado, a province in northern Mozambique, has been under conflict since 2017. The province has also been affected by illegal logging for over two decades. We use georeferenced data (0.2 × 0.2 decimal degree level) on forest cover loss to comprehend the impact of the exploitation of timber on this insurgency, for the period 2017-2020. Resorting to exogenous international prices, our findings suggest that illegal logging is linked with a higher risk of conflict, whereas legal wood exploitation reduces it. The discovery of natural gas in the region also appears to increase conflict incidence through the forestry industry.