Forecasting the future of tourism in South Africa: an analytical approach - predictive analysis of tourist arrivals

Abstract

This research presents an analysis and forecast of tourist arrivals to South Africa and their economic implications. It explores the reciprocal role of tourism as a driver of economic development and an outcome of the country’s progress. Miguel’s individual part focuses on building time series forecasting models (SARIMA and SARIMAX) to accurately predict monthly tourist arrivals to South Africa. Hugo’s part then moves to quantify the potential economic impacts of these predictions, analyzing them against current governmental practices.