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Sizing fiscal adjustments: evidence from advanced countries in 2000-2021
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Resumo(s)
The question on the feasibility to implement a sizeable fiscal consolidation in advanced
countries becomes central again in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. As such, we expand the
analysis of Escolano et al. (2014), identifying 19 fiscal adjustment episodes for advanced
economies that both needed and wanted to consolidate during period 2000-2021. We find that
cyclically adjusted primary balances improved by at least 5.4 percent of GDP during most
episodes, with most countries achieving debt stabilization. We then investigate the
accompanying factors and their correlations with the size of consolidations, suggesting some
improvements to the methodology in terms of econometric technique and possible further areas
of analysis.
Descrição
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Fiscal adjustment Fiscal consolidation Size of adjustment Fiscal sustainability Public debt Deficit Primary balance