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This Work Project analyzes the evolution of the Portuguese personal income tax system’s
progressivity over the period of 2005 through 2013. It presents the first computation of
cardinal progressivity measures using administrative tax data for Portugal. We compute
several progressivity indices and find that progressivity has had very modest variations from
2005 to 2012, whilst from 2012 to 2013 there has been a relatively stronger decrease,
excluding the impact of the income tax surcharge of the years 2012 and 2013. When this latter
is included, progressivity of 2012 and 2013 decreases considerably. Analyzing the effective
average tax rates of the top income percentiles in the income scale, we find that these rates
have increased over the period 2010–2013, suggesting that an analysis of effective tax rates is
insufficient to assess progressivity in the whole tax scheme.
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Progressivity Tax burden Income tax Income distribution
