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Getting the carry trade's jackpot: finding indicators of carry crash
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This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades
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Carry trade G10 currencies Drawdown analysis Regime indicators