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Scenarios for the future of the agrifood industry - strategic recommendations and future steps for acembex - the scenario of -neighbor´s garden"
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In this work project, foresight methodology was employed to develop scenarios aimed at
improving X’s decision-making process. The project focuses on the globalization of grain
trading companies and considers potential developments up until 2030. The scenarios were
generated using the Intuitive-Logics School approach, and driving forces were identified
through an analysis of the external environment using the STEEP framework and the clustering
method. Key uncertainties were determined through a survey completed by X’s employees
using Delphi statements. The results of this survey were used to develop four contrasting
scenarios, which were then strategically analyzed to provide recommendations for X.
The thesis covers the scenario, “Neighbor’s Garden” resulting from the configuration of the
two key uncertainties: high degree of regionalization and high acceptance of substitute and
alternative products for animal protein.
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Foresight Scenario planning Business strategy Uncertainty Driving forces Trade Agrifood Grain