A carregar...
Publicação
Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.66 MB | Adobe PDF |
Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This work project contributes to the current literature on using Google search queries to predict
economic activity. We demonstrate, using the two-step Error-Correction Model (ECM) by Engle
and Granger (1987), that specific search queries, also known as Google Trends, are related to house
prices in Portugal. For out-of-sample forecasts, our ECM model with the Google Trends variables
performed significantly better predicting one year ahead, in which, the Mean Absolute Error was
reduced by over 30% compared to our baseline model. Until now, conventional economics has not
leveraged this highly accessible digital data in their models, we hope this will change.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Econometrics Housing Google trends Forecasting Error-correction model