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Do variations in growing seasons foster conflict? A panel data analysis of Kenya
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This paper studies the relationship between growing seasons and conflict risk in Kenya.
Changing weather dynamics, primarily caused by climate change, raise the question of how
these disruptions impact our society and conflicts around the world. Instead of utilizing
temperature and precipitation data as commonly done in recent literature, this paper applies a
novel approach which uses NDVI data from satellite measurements. These are used to derive
phenology metrics which serve as proxy variables for vegetation productivity in the fixed
effects regression. They are estimated to significantly affect conflict while indications of
favorable growing seasons are estimated to decrease the risk of conflict in the studied regions
and adverse growing season disruptions increase the risk of conflict.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Conflict Phenology metrics Growing seasons Kenya Weather Panel data