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O realismo defensivo no pensamento estratégico da Rússia: a agressão à Ucrânia em 2014
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A compreensão da política externa da Rússia e dos seus motores é um desafio conhecido dos estadistas e académicos. Nesse sentido, o presente Relatório de Estágio propõe, na sua componente teórica, olhar sobre a história deste país, a sua relação com a NATO e as suas ações recentes, com o objetivo de encontrar um ponto de continuidade que fundamente o recurso à Teoria do Realismo Defensivo enquanto modelo teórico para a compreensão do pensamento estratégico russo, que assentará numa procura contínua por segurança e sobrevivência. É neste sentido que se analisa o caso de estudo da agressão russa à Ucrânia, em 2014. As consequências desta agressão foram, inclusive, sentidas em anos seguintes, até 2021, quando a Rússia intensificou a sua mobilização de tropas junto da fronteira com este país. Foi neste contexto que se iniciou o estágio sobre o qual incide a componente prática do atual Relatório, realizado no Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, na Direção de Serviços para os Assuntos Políticos Europeus, responsável pela relação bilateral entre Portugal e países como a Rússia e a Ucrânia, entre outubro de 2021 e abril de 2022. Este estágio revelou-se particularmente desafiante, considerada a diversidade das tarefas desenvolvidas, mas também os diferentes contextos vividos nos países sob a alçada deste Serviço, que requereram o devido acompanhamento e resposta nacionais, com ênfase para a invasão da Rússia à Ucrânia, em 2022. Por fim, a investigação realizada sobre o caso de 2014 e o trabalho de estágio desenvolvido em 2022 permitiram, ainda, uma breve análise comparativa entre aquilo que distingue ambos os acontecimentos.
The understanding of Russia's foreign policy and its drivers is a well-known challenge for statesmen and academics. In this sense, this Internship Report proposes, in its theoretical component, to look at the history of this country, its relationship with NATO and its recent actions, with the aim of finding a point of continuity that supports the use of the Theory of Defensive Realism as a theoretical model for understanding Russian strategic thinking, which is based on a continuous search for security and survival. It is in this sense that the case study of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 is analysed. The consequences of this aggression were even felt in the following years, until 2021, when Russia intensified its mobilisation of troops near the border with this country. It was in this context that the internship on which the practical component of the current report is based began, carried out in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the Directorate of Services for European Political Affairs, responsible for bilateral relations between Portugal and countries such as Russia and Ukraine, between October 2021 and April 2022. This internship proved to be particularly challenging, considering the diversity of the tasks carried out, but also the different contexts experienced in the countries under the remit of this Service, which required due monitoring and national response, with emphasis on Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finally, the research carried out on the 2014 case and the internship work carried out in 2022 also allowed for a brief comparative analysis between what distinguishes both events.
The understanding of Russia's foreign policy and its drivers is a well-known challenge for statesmen and academics. In this sense, this Internship Report proposes, in its theoretical component, to look at the history of this country, its relationship with NATO and its recent actions, with the aim of finding a point of continuity that supports the use of the Theory of Defensive Realism as a theoretical model for understanding Russian strategic thinking, which is based on a continuous search for security and survival. It is in this sense that the case study of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 is analysed. The consequences of this aggression were even felt in the following years, until 2021, when Russia intensified its mobilisation of troops near the border with this country. It was in this context that the internship on which the practical component of the current report is based began, carried out in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the Directorate of Services for European Political Affairs, responsible for bilateral relations between Portugal and countries such as Russia and Ukraine, between October 2021 and April 2022. This internship proved to be particularly challenging, considering the diversity of the tasks carried out, but also the different contexts experienced in the countries under the remit of this Service, which required due monitoring and national response, with emphasis on Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Finally, the research carried out on the 2014 case and the internship work carried out in 2022 also allowed for a brief comparative analysis between what distinguishes both events.
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Rússia Ucrânia Realismo Defensivo Segurança NATO Espaço Pós- Soviético Ukraine Defensive Realism Security Post-Soviet Space