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Impact of households- mortgage debt on consumption and prediction of households- debt payment issues in the Spanish economy
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This paper aims at analysing the impact of households mortgage debt on consumption, as well as the default behaviour of Spanish households over the last 18 years, using the data collected in the Survey of Household Finances (EFF). For this purpose ,a regression model is created, where consumption is expressed mainly as a function of several households social economic characteristics and financial positions, finding out that changes in consumption are highly negatively sensitive to changes in house-holds’ mortgage debt; whereas income and possession of real and financial assets are positively associated to changes in households’ consumption. Besides, three different machine learning algorithms are implemented to predict when households face debt payment issues. After evaluating and comparing the performance of each of them, it is concluded that both the Nearest Neigh bors and Classification Tree approaches are the best ones.
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Machine learning Household consumption Financial crisis Data analytics Spain Mortgage debt Loan default