Covid-19: the impact on the hotel industry - the Nh hotel group case study

Abstract

This work project aims at measuring the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the hotel industry by taking NH Hotel Group as a case study. Firstly, an analysis of the surrounding environment and the crisis originated by the pandemic was performed, focusing on the tourism sector and, specifically, the lodging industry. Thereafter, a research on the above-mentioned company was conducted in order to understand its business model and market context. Finally, a valuation of NH Hotel Group was completed based on a 5-year business plan under three different scenarios related with a vaccine development. An enterprise value of €5,063 million and €2,786 million was obtained in the best and worst-case scenarios, respectively, which translated to a stock price of €7.25 and €1.44in each. These results illustrate how a faster vaccine develop mentis expected to lead to a lower COVID-19 outbreak impact on NH Hotel Group value.