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Forecasting banking crises in developing countries: a dynamic probit approach
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Banking crises have afflicted economies in developing countries at least as much as they have in developed ones. In this paper, we discuss possible indicators that allow an effective forecast of banking crises based on an historical analysis of past crises, and develop several probit models, using yearly data from 1960 to 2014 for 33 developing countries across Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific. We find that a dynamic probit model which incorporates exuberance dummy variables gives the best forecasting results. Data on exports, inflation, broad money and birth rate provide the best indicators across the different models tested.
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Early warning system Dynamic probit models Banking crisis