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The fitting of the German yield curve: a dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables
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Resumo(s)
The purpose of this Work Project is to build a yield curve model for the German Government yield curve containing latent variables (Level, Slope and Curvature), macroeconomic variables (German IFO and Inflation Rate) and a stock market variable (German Stock Index DAX), while studying the yield curve dynamics.
The model incorporates the Nelson and Siegel (1987) factor model under a State-Space framework and the estimation results provided a good fitting of the historical yield curve. Additionally, after doing a Variance Decomposition analysis, this project proves the existence of an interaction between the yield curve and the German Macroeconomy/Stock Market.
Descrição
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
Palavras-chave
Yield curve State-space model Macroeconomy Stock market