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MercadoLibre: sustaining Growth in volatile macro environment
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| 2.53 MB | Adobe PDF |
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This report evaluates MercadoLibre Inc. and its ability to sustain growth in a volatile macro environment, given its leading position in Latin American e-commerce and fintech. The investment case is supported by structural changes in online retail and digital payments, a
strong logistics network, and an ecosystem model where marketplace, payments, logistics, credit and advertising reinforce each other. Valuation is primarily based on a discounted cash flow model using a WACC of 13.61% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, complemented by relative valuation (EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA). The base case results in a target share price of $2,247.84 by 31 December 2026, implying 11.5% upside compared to $2,015.89 as of 12 December 2025, supporting a Buy recommendation. Key risks include macroeconomic and
FX volatility, regulatory changes affecting payments and consumer credit, intensified competition in both e commerce and fintech, and execution risk related to logistics investments and rapid credit growth.
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MercadoLibre E-commerce Fintech Latin America