NSBE - Finance
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- Potential leveraged buyout of nomad foods: financial modellingPublication . Bott, Amelie; Duarte, Luís Mota; Bernardo, António MiguelThis paper evaluates Nomad Foods as a potential investment opportunity for a leverage buyout transaction. As Europe's leading frozen food company, Nomad Foods has demonstrated consistent growth through strategic acquisitions, price increases, and operational efficiencies. The analysis examines the company’s financial performance, market position, and growth potential, considering key dynamics such as evolving consumer preferences and increasing demand for convenience. The paper highlights critical value drivers, including operational improvements, product mix optimization, market consolidation, and cash generation. Leveraging conservative financial projections, the investment thesis outlines opportunities for enhancing profitability and more to achieve a sponsor MoM of 2.83x and an IRR after a 5 year holding period of 23%. Through detailed market analysis, valuation methodologies, and strategic insights, the paper provides a comprehensive foundation for assessing Nomad Foods’ suitability for a private equity investment case.
- The European defence sector: hype or fundamentals? A valuation-based examination of LeonardoPublication . Reimering, Robin; Anjos, FernandoThe European defence sector has experienced an unprecedented surge in equity valuations, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, media attention, and strong investor sentiment. This raises the question whether market prices are fundamentally justified. Using Leonardo as case study, this thesis examines the extent to which market pricing aligns with intrinsic value through an analysis of strategy, market environment and fundamental valuation. Findings indicate that current pricing embeds optimistic assumptions on growth and margin expansion, driven by rising budgets and strategy execution. These assumptions hinge on disciplined programme delivery, cost control, and continued political support, exposing valuation to execution and normalization risks.
- From chaos to comeback: an equity valuation of carnival corporationPublication . Ziegler, Michel; Miguel, António FreitasThis report presents a valuation of Carnival Corporation, part of the dual-listed Carnival Corporation & plc, the world’s largest cruise operator. The Group has returned to record operating metrics after pandemic-related disruption, yet remains constrained by elevated leverage and tightening environmental regulation. The valuation is derived from a scenario-based discounted cash flow model and a comparable company analysis using forward-looking trading multiples. A weighted blend of these two methods yields a target share price of $34.56. This implies a modest upside of 8.38% relative to the closing share price of $31.89 on August 31, 2025, and supports a HOLD recommendation.
- Field lab analysis of quantitative investment strategiesPublication . Wächtler, Luca Elias; Hirschey, NicholasThis paper evaluates four systematic investment strategies and assesses the benefits of combining them into a diversified multi-strategy portfolio. Several portfolio construction methods are compared, including Equal Weight, Global Minimum Variance, Tangency, and Risk Parity, and a flagship Combined Strategy is identified based on out-of-sample performance. The flagship portfolio delivers an out-of-sample annualised excess return of 10.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.65. It exhibits strong outperformance when compared to traditional U.S. equity and bond benchmarks and provides meaningful diversification during major market stress episodes, generating positive excess returns in each of the largest equity and bond market drawdowns.
- Equity research on Leonardo S.p.A.: Is now the time to invest in defense?Publication . Santis, Nicola Sousa De; Miguel, António FreitasThis equity research project aims to estimate the intrinsic equity value of Leonardo S.p.A. using common valuation frameworks. The analysis is conducted as part of the Master’s degree in International Finance at Nova School of Business and Economics and follows institutional equity research standards. The valuation is centered on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology, whereby enterprise value is derived from the present value of forecasted Free Cash Flows to the firm. Financial projections are developed on a bottom-up basis using explicit assumptions on operating performance, capital expenditure, working capital dynamics, taxation, and capital structure, as reflected in the underlying financial model. Additional valuation methodologies are used for triangulation and are presented through football field analysis, without influencing the core investment conclusion. The objective of the analysis is to assess whether Leonardo’s current market valuation appropriately reflects its expected future cash-flow generation and risk profile under the base-case assumptions. The valuation date is 30 June 2025.
- An integrated restructuring case study of frontiercommunications: evaluating distressed acquisition pathways through private equity leveraged buyout analysisPublication . Serrasqueiro, João Vitor Antonio; Sacchetto, StefanoThis thesis examines Frontier Communications’ 2020 financial distress and compares creditor outcomes under four pathways: an out-of-court restructuring, a court-supervised Chapter 11 reorganization, a Chapter 7 liquidation, and a distressed private-equity “loan-to-own” alternative. Using valuation-based recovery waterfalls, the analysis finds Chapter 11 is the most value-preserving and likely outcome for the unsecured senior notes, delivering an estimated 46% recovery on the base case, versus an out-of-court proposal of approximately 12.3%, Chapter 7 outcomes of 0–24% (8% in the base case), and an unlikely c. 45% recovery through sale of fulcrum security to private equity.
- Puma's push to regain momentum – a competitive benchmark of profitability trendsPublication . Meineke, Finn Niklas; Rocha, GonçaloThis Equity Research paper assesses Puma SE amid its transformation and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The valuation yields a BUY recommendation, with the analyst model (WACC 8.56%, terminal growth rate 3.25%) implying an intrinsic value of €26.06 by 31 December 2026. A difficult reset year in 2025, marked by negative EBIT, high inventories and declining sales, is expected to give way to stabilisation in 2026 and renewed growth from 2027. Despite margin pressure from weak global growth and US tariffs, a 4.58% CAGR sportswear market offers long-term upside, contingent on successful execution of Puma’s strategic transformation.
- From sin stock to smoke free: rationalizing the valuation of Philip MorrisPublication . Neu, Leon Paul Niklas; Anjos, FernandoThis thesis assesses the valuation of Philip Morris International (PMI) during its strategic pivot from combustible tobacco to reduced-risk products. This transition challenges traditional "sin stock" classifications. By triangulating intrinsic (DCF, DDM) and relative valuation methods, the study identifies a valuation bifurcation. While the Dividend Discount Model aligns with the current market price of roughly $155, suggesting investors price PMI for yield, the Discounted Cash Flow analysis implies an intrinsic value of $204.01. This discrepancy suggests the stock is fundamentally undervalued for investors willing to account for the structural growth of the smoke-free portfolio.
- Ferrari: driving performance on and off the trackPublication . Samide, Alina Marlene; Miguel, António FreitasThis thesis examines whether the market valuation of Ferrari N.V. as of 13 November 2025 (€362.10 per share) is supported by the company’s underlying fundamentals. The DCF analysis yields an equity value of €378.11 per share, implying limited upside (4.42%). Alternative intrinsic valuation approaches produce a wider valuation range (€261-434), with differences driven primarily by terminal value assumptions. Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses confirm an expected value centered around €378. Relative valuation shows that Ferrari trades at a premium to automotive peers and is valued more akin to a global luxury house, reflecting pricing power, margin resilience, and brand-driven scarcity
- Public company valuation: BAE systems PLCPublication . Guemuessoy, Oemer; Anjos, FernandoThis thesis evaluates whether the market valuation of BAE Systems plc can be rationalised through a DCF and comparable company analysis, as of 29th September 2025. The findings suggest that BAE Systems is modestly undervalued relative to its current market price, supported by strong cash flow generation, margin expansion, and a record order backlog. The DCF model, implies an equity value of £78.4bn (£26.28 per share), while the comparable analysis yields £26.7 per share. Both methods indicate sustained value creation driven by diversified segment growth and resilient defence market dynamics.