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- The European defence sector: hype or fundamentals? A valuation-based examination of LeonardoPublication . Reimering, Robin; Anjos, FernandoThe European defence sector has experienced an unprecedented surge in equity valuations, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, media attention, and strong investor sentiment. This raises the question whether market prices are fundamentally justified. Using Leonardo as case study, this thesis examines the extent to which market pricing aligns with intrinsic value through an analysis of strategy, market environment and fundamental valuation. Findings indicate that current pricing embeds optimistic assumptions on growth and margin expansion, driven by rising budgets and strategy execution. These assumptions hinge on disciplined programme delivery, cost control, and continued political support, exposing valuation to execution and normalization risks.
- From chaos to comeback: an equity valuation of carnival corporationPublication . Ziegler, Michel; Miguel, António FreitasThis report presents a valuation of Carnival Corporation, part of the dual-listed Carnival Corporation & plc, the world’s largest cruise operator. The Group has returned to record operating metrics after pandemic-related disruption, yet remains constrained by elevated leverage and tightening environmental regulation. The valuation is derived from a scenario-based discounted cash flow model and a comparable company analysis using forward-looking trading multiples. A weighted blend of these two methods yields a target share price of $34.56. This implies a modest upside of 8.38% relative to the closing share price of $31.89 on August 31, 2025, and supports a HOLD recommendation.
- Field lab analysis of quantitative investment strategiesPublication . Wächtler, Luca Elias; Hirschey, NicholasThis paper evaluates four systematic investment strategies and assesses the benefits of combining them into a diversified multi-strategy portfolio. Several portfolio construction methods are compared, including Equal Weight, Global Minimum Variance, Tangency, and Risk Parity, and a flagship Combined Strategy is identified based on out-of-sample performance. The flagship portfolio delivers an out-of-sample annualised excess return of 10.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.65. It exhibits strong outperformance when compared to traditional U.S. equity and bond benchmarks and provides meaningful diversification during major market stress episodes, generating positive excess returns in each of the largest equity and bond market drawdowns.
- An integrated restructuring case study of frontiercommunications: evaluating distressed acquisition pathways through private equity leveraged buyout analysisPublication . Serrasqueiro, João Vitor Antonio; Sacchetto, StefanoThis thesis examines Frontier Communications’ 2020 financial distress and compares creditor outcomes under four pathways: an out-of-court restructuring, a court-supervised Chapter 11 reorganization, a Chapter 7 liquidation, and a distressed private-equity “loan-to-own” alternative. Using valuation-based recovery waterfalls, the analysis finds Chapter 11 is the most value-preserving and likely outcome for the unsecured senior notes, delivering an estimated 46% recovery on the base case, versus an out-of-court proposal of approximately 12.3%, Chapter 7 outcomes of 0–24% (8% in the base case), and an unlikely c. 45% recovery through sale of fulcrum security to private equity.
- Puma's push to regain momentum – a competitive benchmark of profitability trendsPublication . Meineke, Finn Niklas; Rocha, GonçaloThis Equity Research paper assesses Puma SE amid its transformation and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The valuation yields a BUY recommendation, with the analyst model (WACC 8.56%, terminal growth rate 3.25%) implying an intrinsic value of €26.06 by 31 December 2026. A difficult reset year in 2025, marked by negative EBIT, high inventories and declining sales, is expected to give way to stabilisation in 2026 and renewed growth from 2027. Despite margin pressure from weak global growth and US tariffs, a 4.58% CAGR sportswear market offers long-term upside, contingent on successful execution of Puma’s strategic transformation.
- From sin stock to smoke free: rationalizing the valuation of Philip MorrisPublication . Neu, Leon Paul Niklas; Anjos, FernandoThis thesis assesses the valuation of Philip Morris International (PMI) during its strategic pivot from combustible tobacco to reduced-risk products. This transition challenges traditional "sin stock" classifications. By triangulating intrinsic (DCF, DDM) and relative valuation methods, the study identifies a valuation bifurcation. While the Dividend Discount Model aligns with the current market price of roughly $155, suggesting investors price PMI for yield, the Discounted Cash Flow analysis implies an intrinsic value of $204.01. This discrepancy suggests the stock is fundamentally undervalued for investors willing to account for the structural growth of the smoke-free portfolio.
- Ferrari: driving performance on and off the trackPublication . Samide, Alina Marlene; Miguel, António FreitasThis thesis examines whether the market valuation of Ferrari N.V. as of 13 November 2025 (€362.10 per share) is supported by the company’s underlying fundamentals. The DCF analysis yields an equity value of €378.11 per share, implying limited upside (4.42%). Alternative intrinsic valuation approaches produce a wider valuation range (€261-434), with differences driven primarily by terminal value assumptions. Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses confirm an expected value centered around €378. Relative valuation shows that Ferrari trades at a premium to automotive peers and is valued more akin to a global luxury house, reflecting pricing power, margin resilience, and brand-driven scarcity
- Valuation of Einride AB – pre-IPO valuation and exit strategy analysis for Einride: synergy aluation of a potential acquisition by Volvo groupPublication . Kerner, Luis; Gavrilova, EkaterinaThis thesis performs a comprehensive valuation of Einride AB, a Swedish autonomous electric freight company, to determine its optimal exit strategy. Using a scenario-based Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model cross-checked with trading and transaction multiples, we estimate a Base Case Enterprise Value of USD 1.7 billion. This valuation validates the company’s potential to achieve profitable scale with its integrated "Freight-as-a-Service" business model, positioning a US-based Initial Public Offering (IPO) as the superior value-maximizing path. Alternatively, within the context of a downside scenario, we evaluate potential strategic acquisitions by Volvo Group and quantify the associated synergies achievable.
- Costco at tech multiples: why the current premium is hard to justifyPublication . Rocha, Eduardo Chicralla da; Anjos, FernandoThis thesis assesses whether Costco’s share price of $943.32 (29/08/2025) is justified by its fundamentals. Despite operating a low-margin, asset-intensive warehouse model, Costco trades at valuation levels comparable to leading technology firms and has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and S&P Retail indices. Intrinsic valuation methods (DCF, APV, FTE) imply a fair value of $431-464 per share, while relative valuation and cost-of-equity estimates (8.2% under CAPM, 11-12% under multi-factor models) consistently reinforce the overvaluation conclusion. Overall, the evidence suggests Costco is materially overvalued, with normalization likely occurring through sideways trading and gradual multiple compression rather than sharp price declines.
- Equity research of PUMA SE: evaluating the path forwardPublication . Niyonsenga, Eliane; Miguel, António FreitasThis master’s thesis, titled “Equity Research of PUMA SE: Evaluating the Path Forward,” examines the intrinsic value of PUMA SE and assesses its investment attractiveness based on the share price as of 28 October 2025. PUMA SE is a globally recognized sportswear company operating across footwear, apparel, and accessories, with a strong brand presence and an asset-light business model. The analysis integrates historical financial performance, industry dynamics, and forward-looking assumptions reflecting management’s strategic reset and prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Valuation is conducted using a discounted cash flow approach, complemented by trading comparables and transaction multiples to triangulate value. Scenario and sensitivity analyses are employed to capture uncertainty surrounding growth, profitability, and cost of capital. The results indicate that PUMA’s current market valuation broadly reflects its medium-term fundamentals, with limited valuation-driven upside at prevailing price levels. Consequently, the thesis concludes with a Hold recommendation, highlighting execution risk and margin recovery as the key determinants of future shareholder returns.