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Causal Effects of Public Procurement on SME Performance: Evidence from Portugal
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This thesis investigates the causal impact of winning open auction public procurement
contracts on the performance of Portuguese Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).
While public procurement represents a powerful policy tool to support SMEs, rigorous
empirical evidence on its effectiveness for SMEs, particularly concerning Portugal’s context,
remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by employing Difference-in-Differences (DiD)
estimators, primarily the method proposed by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021), on a dataset
combining firm-level financial records from ORBIS with comprehensive public contract data
from Portal BASE for the period 2013-2022. Our primary analysis suggests that winning a
public contract results in a significant and robust increase in firm profitability. On average,
winning firms experienced substantial increases in both Return on Assets (ROA) and Operating
Profit (EBIT). However, we find no corresponding increase in firm growth, as measured by
either employment or asset growth. The analysis of treatment effect heterogeneity reveals
that the profitability gains are primarily driven by medium-sized and younger firms, as well as
those with a history of repeated contract awards. These findings, robust across multiple DiD
estimators, suggest that while public procurement can enhance SME profitability, its benefits
are not uniform and may depend on a firm's pre-existing capabilities, age, and industry
context, highlighting the need for more targeted policy measures that go beyond simply
increasing SME access to public contracts.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Public Procurement SME Performance Difference-in-Differences (DiD) Policy Evaluation Event Study SDG 8 - Decent work and economic growth SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure