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A Administração Trump e a China: A Grande Estratégia Americana no Indo-Pacífico à luz da teoria do Offshore Balancing
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Donald Trump chega à Casa Branca num momento de grande mudança nas relações entre Washington e Pequim. A China tinha emergido como uma potência regional cada vez mais assertiva tanto economicamente como militarmente, demonstrando ambições que desafiavam os interesses dos Estados Unidos na Ásia, e, de modo mais abrangente, a sua posição dominante como a única superpotência no sistema internacional.
Inicialmente, os dois países tinham-se reaproximado durante a Guerra Fria, aproximação que tinha sido ditada por um imperativo estratégico, numa era de détente, visando fomentar a divisão do bloco soviético. Esta aproximação revelou-se positiva e rapidamente evoluiu, mesmo após o colapso da União Soviética, com os Estados Unidos a manterem a cooperação económica, política e diplomática com Pequim. Esta política deu-se porque os Estados Unidos, na sua posição cimeira no sistema internacional, acreditavam que o desenvolvimento da China eventualmente levaria a uma liberalização política do país, sendo preferível a uma política de contenção semelhante àquela seguida durante a Guerra Fria, evitando-se um novo clima de rivalidade e instabilidade global.
Com o início do novo milénio, parecia tornar-se evidente que o mero envolvimento de Pequim na ordem internacional não seria suficiente para evitar uma rivalidade entre os dois países, nem que a China evitaria procurar expandir o seu poder e influencia na região, colocando em causa os interesses americanos. A sua rápida modernização e o seu crescente dinamismo económico transformavam-se em poder militar e influência regional, obrigando os Estados Unidos a recentrarem os seus esforços nesta rivalidade que surgia. Este “reequilíbrio” surgiu ainda na administração Obama, com esforços de recuperar ainfluência no Indo-Pacífico após mais uma década de envolvimento no médio-oriente.
Simultaneamente, os Estados Unidos encontravam-se divididos quanto ao futuro da sua política externa, desgastada por anos de intervenções militares associadas à luta contra o terrorismo e pela perceção de declínio relativo do poder americano face a Pequim. É neste contexto que nos encontramos no momento da eleição de Donald Trump. Prometendo uma política externa “America First”, centrada na soberania e nos interesse dos Estados Unidos, e criticando os défices comerciais da economia americana em relação à chinesa, Trump parecia ir diretamente contra os fundamentos clássicos da tradicional política externa americana desde a dissolução da União Soviética. Nesta dissertação propomo-nos assim expor a teoria do realismo das relações internacionais, nomeadamente a estratégia de offshore balancing, e compará-la à atuação da administração Trump, averiguando a sua validade como modelo explicativo da relação com a China.
Donald Trump entered the White House at a time of profound change in the relations between Washington and Beijing. China had emerged as an increasingly assertive regional power, both economically and militarily, demonstrating ambitions that challenged U.S. interests in Asia and, more broadly, America’s dominant position as the sole superpower in the international system. Initially, the two countries had drawn closer during the Cold War, an approach dictated by strategic necessity in an era of détente, aimed at fostering division within the Soviet bloc. This rapprochement proved positive and evolved rapidly, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the United States maintaining economic, political, and diplomatic cooperation ties with Beijing. Washington’s policy was guided by the belief that China’s economic development would, eventually, lead to political liberalization, making engagement preferable to a policy of containment similar to that pursued during the Cold War, thus avoiding a climate of rivalry and global instability. With the dawn of the new millennium, however, it became increasingly evident that merely integrating Beijing into the international order would not be sufficient to prevent rivalry between the two powers, nor would it deter China from expanding its power and influence in the region, developments that increasingly challenged U.S. interests. China’s rapid modernization and growing economic dynamism were transforming into military power and regional influence, compelling the United States to refocus its strategic attention on this emerging competition. This “rebalance” had already begun under the Obama administration, as Washington sought to restore its influence in the Indo-Pacific after more than a decade of engagement in the Middle East. At the same time, the United States found itself internally divided over the future of its foreign policy, worn down by years of military interventions linked to the war on terrorism and by a growing perception of relative decline regarding Beijing. It is within this context that Donald Trump’s election took place. Promising an “America First” foreign policy cantered on national sovereignty and the defence of American interests, while criticizing the U.S. trade deficits with China, Trump appeared to break with the classical foundations of American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This dissertation therefore seeks to examine the theory of Realism in International Relations, particularly the Offshore Balancing strategy and to compare it with the foreign policy of the Trump administration, assessing its validity as an explanatory model for U.S.–China relations.
Donald Trump entered the White House at a time of profound change in the relations between Washington and Beijing. China had emerged as an increasingly assertive regional power, both economically and militarily, demonstrating ambitions that challenged U.S. interests in Asia and, more broadly, America’s dominant position as the sole superpower in the international system. Initially, the two countries had drawn closer during the Cold War, an approach dictated by strategic necessity in an era of détente, aimed at fostering division within the Soviet bloc. This rapprochement proved positive and evolved rapidly, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the United States maintaining economic, political, and diplomatic cooperation ties with Beijing. Washington’s policy was guided by the belief that China’s economic development would, eventually, lead to political liberalization, making engagement preferable to a policy of containment similar to that pursued during the Cold War, thus avoiding a climate of rivalry and global instability. With the dawn of the new millennium, however, it became increasingly evident that merely integrating Beijing into the international order would not be sufficient to prevent rivalry between the two powers, nor would it deter China from expanding its power and influence in the region, developments that increasingly challenged U.S. interests. China’s rapid modernization and growing economic dynamism were transforming into military power and regional influence, compelling the United States to refocus its strategic attention on this emerging competition. This “rebalance” had already begun under the Obama administration, as Washington sought to restore its influence in the Indo-Pacific after more than a decade of engagement in the Middle East. At the same time, the United States found itself internally divided over the future of its foreign policy, worn down by years of military interventions linked to the war on terrorism and by a growing perception of relative decline regarding Beijing. It is within this context that Donald Trump’s election took place. Promising an “America First” foreign policy cantered on national sovereignty and the defence of American interests, while criticizing the U.S. trade deficits with China, Trump appeared to break with the classical foundations of American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This dissertation therefore seeks to examine the theory of Realism in International Relations, particularly the Offshore Balancing strategy and to compare it with the foreign policy of the Trump administration, assessing its validity as an explanatory model for U.S.–China relations.
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Palavras-chave
Realismo Offshore Balancing Indo-Pacífico Primeira Administração Trump Política Externa dos Estados Unido China Realism Indo-Pacific Region First Trump Administration US Foreign Policy