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European monetary union entry dilemma: EU new member states
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This paper has two aims: firstly, assess inflation dynamics in the New Member
States (NMS) from Central and Eastern using New-Keynesian Phillips Curve
framework; and secondly compute the output costs of eliminating current NMS inflation
differential to the EU by means of a simplified version of a core equations from a small, open
economy macroeconomic model.
Estimation shows that inflation inertia, EU growth and to a lesser extent the
Balassa-Samuelson effect and capital inflows exogenously depart NMS inflation from
MIC reference value. Additionally, disinflation simulations entail very significant output
costs to eliminate inflation differential in EMU accession countries.
Descrição
A Work Project, presented as part as the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economy from the Nova School in Business and Economics
Palavras-chave
Disinflation Output costs Maastricht Inflation Criteria New Keynesian Phillips Curve