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Valuation of firms in IPO and M&AS field lab: macroeconomic analysis of birkenstock’s IPO
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This thesis examines Birkenstock Holding plc’s October 2023 IPO and its subsequent market performance. Despite strong brand equity and robust fundamentals, the stock declined 12.9% on its debut, reflecting valuation concerns and unfavorable market conditions. Through industry analysis and a multi-method valuation framework (DCF, APV, FTE, EVA, and Multiples), the firm’s intrinsic value is estimated at $36-$40 per share, below the $46 IPO price yet consistent with mid-2025 trading levels. A macroeconomic regression explains about 20% of post-IPO return variation, driven primarily by sectoral discretionary demand rather than inflation, interest rates, or investor sentiment.
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nitial public offerings Equity valuation Intrinsic value Post-IPO performance Market dynamics Financial modelling Discounted cash flow Adjusted present value Relative valuation Market efficiency Empirical analysis Regression analysis