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Partisan shifts in institutional trust: evidence from the 2020-2022 U.S. election cycles
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We use a three-waves panel from the American National Election Studies to analyze how the 2020 presidential and 2022 midterm election cycles affected partisan institutional trust. Employinindividual and time fixed-effects OLS, we trace shifts in Democrats’ and Republicans’ confidence in three types of institutions: the electoral process (electoral officials, vote counting), judicial bodies (DOJ, FBI), and media outlets (Fox News, MSNBC).We find that both parties experience statistically significant divergent changes in trust across these institutions, and contrary to expectations, news consumption mainly online (online, mobile) or on traditional platforms (TV, Radio) does not systematically explain these changes. These results suggest that partisan identity, rather than the environment of news consumption, shaped how Americans’ confidence in institutions reacted to the events between 2020 and 2022.
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U.S. elections Democratic institutions Partisanship Institutional trust