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Financial risk management at Galp: modeling cash flow at risk
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This thesis analyses Galp Energia’s financial risk management practices, focusing on quantifying its market exposure to commodities, foreign exchange, and interest rates. Using a
proprietary Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR) model, gasoline is identified as an optimal short-term hedging instrument due to its strong representation of overall business-level risk. The proposed Collar Strategy effectively reduces the likelihood of a cash flow problem and adheres to industry hedging standards. By mitigating risks of underinvestment, credit downgrades, and liquidity constraints, the framework strengthens financial stability and investor confidence.
These recommendations offer a robust foundation for managing market uncertainties and achieving sustainable growth.
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Risk management Financial risk management Hedging Simulations Oil and Gas industry