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How does regional housing market sentiment affect the formation of house price expectations?
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This thesis studies how regional housing market sentiment influences households’ expectations about future house-price growth. Using monthly behavioural indicators from Zillow to construct a Regional Sentiment Index and matching it to individual expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the analysis links local market conditions to subjective beliefs across states. A national sentiment measure from Fannie Mae serves as a benchmark. Results show that regional sentiment strongly predicts expected price growth, while national sentiment contributes little. Further analysis reveals marked differences across states: sentiment plays a much stronger role in places with more volatile housing markets, while expectations in more stable states react only modestly.
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Microeconomics Behavioural economics Household expectations House-hold sentiment