NSBE - Economics
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- Energy Policy: A Comparison between the European Union and the United StatesPublication . Carmo, Nídia Marina Pereira do; Sá, Antonieta Cunha eThe energy policies in European Union and United States are analyzed. The energy policies were divided into its main goals/targets and then the respective instruments to accomplish these goals were addressed. It can be concluded that United States don’t have a federal implementation level of energy policy as the European member states have. Besides the different level of federal commitment, the instruments of environmental policy used in both cases are similar. In European Union, the widely used policy to achieve the binding targets is the feed in tariff. This tariff would become more cost effective if it was combined with a tax on electricity consumption. In United States, the commonly used policies to promote the use of renewables are renewable portfolio standards and tax credits. Combining a renewable portfolio standard with a cap and trade program, would allow a cost effective policy in promoting the use of renewables and in reducing carbon emissions.
- Fiscal and financial crises during 20th century in Portugal(1916-1924 and 1974-1985): causes and effectsPublication . Capelo, Ricardo Jorge Almeida Lourenço; Silva, Álvaro Ferreira daUsing the same approach , this paper aims at comparing and understanding the main factors of the two major fiscal and financial crises that occurred in Portugal during the 20th century , both having a relevant impact in the country. The first one happened in the beginning of the century, more precisely between 1916 and 1924, and the second one between 1974 and 1979. This is important and new in which concerns Economic Policy, as nobody has treated this question by applying the same comparison patterns for both crises using the same statistical or econometric methodology. Therefore, this paper wants to identify the factors that contributed to the 20th century’s crises in Portugal.
- Approval voting and acceptability: a surveyPublication . Moreira, Diogo Dias; Côrte-Real, PauloThe choice of a voting system affects decisively the final result of an election. If we think of national institutions, this choice may influence the quality of a democracy and the participation of its citizens. In order to understand the possible advantages and drawbacks of an electoral reform that introduces approval voting, we review the main literature about this system and compare it with the most commonly used voting rules – plurality and runoff voting. We explore the underlying idea that the winner of an election must be the candidate that is considered acceptable by most voters, even though this notion is not very prominent in the social choice literature. We suggest the consideration of acceptability as a general criterion for evaluating voting procedures.
- TikTok content characteristics and political engagement: evidence from German Party communications in the 2025 federal electionPublication . Scheunert, Luc Miguel; Melnikov, NikitaThis study examines how topic selection and sentiment framing influence engagement with political content on TikTok during the 2025 German federal election campaign. Using two-way fixed effects models with party-member TikTok data and contemporaneous polling, the analysis finds that negative sentiment and topics spanning civil rights and democracy, personal narratives, and memes substantially increase engagement. Party-specific estimations reveal substantial heterogeneity in these effects. Despite strong associations between content characteristics and engagement, no statistically meaningful relationship emerges between party-level engagement rates and contemporaneous vote shares in public opinion polls. This null effect is robust across alternative engagement measures and lag structures. The results suggest that TikTok primarily facilitates expressive political behavior rather than shifts in vote intentions.
- Macroeconomic determinants of on-chain stablecoin demand: evidence from a high-frequency micro-panelPublication . Ehrlinspiel, Jan; Rodrigues, Paulo Manuel MarquesThis working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system.
- Wind-driven wildfire smoke exposure: a quasi-experimental analysis of mortality and morbidityPublication . Feil, Elias; Melnikov, NikitaAs climate change intensifies wildfires, quantifying causal health impacts is essential. Using a wind-driven Smoke Exposure Index for the 2024 Valparaíso fire, this study estimates mortality and morbidity. Results show a significant mortality surge of 2.186 excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per one-standard-deviation increase in the Smoke Exposure Index during the biweekly period following the fire’s onset. Morbidity analysis reveals a "dual effect": disaster disruptions caused a drop in all-cause emergency room visits, outweighing rising injuries. Nighttime lights showed no decline. These findings quantify the acute human cost, informing public health preparedness.
- Determinants of teacher turnover in public and private schools: evidence from PortugalPublication . Novo, Ines Beatriz Romano Gonçalves; Peralta, Susana; Nunes, Luís Catela; Freitas, PedroThis study examines how teacher and school characteristics shape teachers’ mobility across sectors, using comprehensive administrative data covering the full population of Portuguese teachers. We analyze the role of individual attributes, such as gender, age, and wages, in determining transitions between private and public schools. The results indicate that female teachers, particularly those of childbearing age, are more likely to move into the public sector. Teachers aged 30 to 39 exhibit the highest likelihood of switching to public schools. Higher wages are associated with lower mobility, although wage differentials across sectors are often statistically insignificant. Measures of student performance have little to no effect on teachers’ sectoral mobility decisions. Heterogeneity analyses reveal meaningful differences across subjects and regions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of both pecuniary and non-pecuniary factors in shaping teachers’ mobility choices.
- Question type, content area, and parental education: understanding achievement gaps in portuguese language examsPublication . Pedro, Beatriz Pereira; Reis, Ana Balcão; Lima, GonçaloThis study examines performance gaps between high- and low- socioeconomic status (SES) students across question types and content areas in Portuguese 9th grade national exams. Using the maximum level of education among parents and guardian as a proxy for SES, the analysis covers exam results from 2013 to 2018, focusing on six question types and five content domains. The findings suggest that high-SES students consistently outperform their peers, with the largest gaps in Multiple Choice and constructed-response questions, and in Grammar, Reading and Literary Education areas. This highlights exam design inequality and provides some guidance to better support disadvantaged students.
- Progressivity and the tax treatment of children: a microsimulation with administrative personal income tax dataPublication . Rocha, Ana Catarina Silva; Peralta, SusanaThis Work Project analyzes the redistributive effects of alternative treatments of children in the Portuguese Personal Income Tax. Using administrative tax microdata from 2017-2020 and a static arithmetic microsimulation model, we compare the observed system of marital quotient and child tax credits with the family quotient regime combined with lower child tax credits applied in 2015. The results show that this policy combination lowers the Kakwani index, indicating a reduction in tax progressivity, and shifts tax relief toward higher-income households, particularly large families, while increasing losses among lower-middle income households. The observed system is more progressive but fiscally more costly.
- Demography, international migration, and climate change in a two-country growth model: implications for developed and developing economiesPublication . Jebali, Skander; Tavares, JoséThis thesis develops a two-region macro–climate framework linking demographic change, one-way migration, and emissions. Countries use simple, interpretable rules for saving, abatement, and migration instead of intertemporal optimization. Cobb–Douglas production, productivity-linked emissions intensity, and convex abatement costs jointly determine output, consumption, and pollution dynamics through scale and intensity channels. A realistic baseline is calibrated to real-world data and then used for quantitative counterfactuals, complemented by toy scenarios used for comparative statics that isolate underlying forces and mechanisms. The thesis closes with a discussion of policy implications, the principal limitations of the framework, and directions for future research.