NSBE - Economics
URI permanente para esta coleção:
Navegar
Entradas recentes
- TikTok content characteristics and political engagement: evidence from German Party communications in the 2025 federal electionPublication . Scheunert, Luc Miguel; Melnikov, NikitaThis study examines how topic selection and sentiment framing influence engagement with political content on TikTok during the 2025 German federal election campaign. Using two-way fixed effects models with party-member TikTok data and contemporaneous polling, the analysis finds that negative sentiment and topics spanning civil rights and democracy, personal narratives, and memes substantially increase engagement. Party-specific estimations reveal substantial heterogeneity in these effects. Despite strong associations between content characteristics and engagement, no statistically meaningful relationship emerges between party-level engagement rates and contemporaneous vote shares in public opinion polls. This null effect is robust across alternative engagement measures and lag structures. The results suggest that TikTok primarily facilitates expressive political behavior rather than shifts in vote intentions.
- Macroeconomic determinants of on-chain stablecoin demand: evidence from a high-frequency micro-panelPublication . Ehrlinspiel, Jan; Rodrigues, Paulo Manuel MarquesThis working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system.
- Wind-driven wildfire smoke exposure: a quasi-experimental analysis of mortality and morbidityPublication . Feil, Elias; Melnikov, NikitaAs climate change intensifies wildfires, quantifying causal health impacts is essential. Using a wind-driven Smoke Exposure Index for the 2024 Valparaíso fire, this study estimates mortality and morbidity. Results show a significant mortality surge of 2.186 excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per one-standard-deviation increase in the Smoke Exposure Index during the biweekly period following the fire’s onset. Morbidity analysis reveals a "dual effect": disaster disruptions caused a drop in all-cause emergency room visits, outweighing rising injuries. Nighttime lights showed no decline. These findings quantify the acute human cost, informing public health preparedness.
- Determinants of teacher turnover in public and private schools: evidence from PortugalPublication . Novo, Ines Beatriz Romano Gonçalves; Peralta, Susana; Nunes, Luís Catela; Freitas, PedroThis study examines how teacher and school characteristics shape teachers’ mobility across sectors, using comprehensive administrative data covering the full population of Portuguese teachers. We analyze the role of individual attributes, such as gender, age, and wages, in determining transitions between private and public schools. The results indicate that female teachers, particularly those of childbearing age, are more likely to move into the public sector. Teachers aged 30 to 39 exhibit the highest likelihood of switching to public schools. Higher wages are associated with lower mobility, although wage differentials across sectors are often statistically insignificant. Measures of student performance have little to no effect on teachers’ sectoral mobility decisions. Heterogeneity analyses reveal meaningful differences across subjects and regions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of both pecuniary and non-pecuniary factors in shaping teachers’ mobility choices.
- Question type, content area, and parental education: understanding achievement gaps in portuguese language examsPublication . Pedro, Beatriz Pereira; Reis, Ana Balcão; Lima, GonçaloThis study examines performance gaps between high- and low- socioeconomic status (SES) students across question types and content areas in Portuguese 9th grade national exams. Using the maximum level of education among parents and guardian as a proxy for SES, the analysis covers exam results from 2013 to 2018, focusing on six question types and five content domains. The findings suggest that high-SES students consistently outperform their peers, with the largest gaps in Multiple Choice and constructed-response questions, and in Grammar, Reading and Literary Education areas. This highlights exam design inequality and provides some guidance to better support disadvantaged students.
- Progressivity and the tax treatment of children: a microsimulation with administrative personal income tax dataPublication . Rocha, Ana Catarina Silva; Peralta, SusanaThis Work Project analyzes the redistributive effects of alternative treatments of children in the Portuguese Personal Income Tax. Using administrative tax microdata from 2017-2020 and a static arithmetic microsimulation model, we compare the observed system of marital quotient and child tax credits with the family quotient regime combined with lower child tax credits applied in 2015. The results show that this policy combination lowers the Kakwani index, indicating a reduction in tax progressivity, and shifts tax relief toward higher-income households, particularly large families, while increasing losses among lower-middle income households. The observed system is more progressive but fiscally more costly.
- Demography, international migration, and climate change in a two-country growth model: implications for developed and developing economiesPublication . Jebali, Skander; Tavares, JoséThis thesis develops a two-region macro–climate framework linking demographic change, one-way migration, and emissions. Countries use simple, interpretable rules for saving, abatement, and migration instead of intertemporal optimization. Cobb–Douglas production, productivity-linked emissions intensity, and convex abatement costs jointly determine output, consumption, and pollution dynamics through scale and intensity channels. A realistic baseline is calibrated to real-world data and then used for quantitative counterfactuals, complemented by toy scenarios used for comparative statics that isolate underlying forces and mechanisms. The thesis closes with a discussion of policy implications, the principal limitations of the framework, and directions for future research.
- Proximity leadership and municipal solid waste management in rural communities: the case of RaimondaPublication . Lourenço, Manuel de Freitas; Cunha-e-Sá, Maria AntonietaThis thesis investigates how proximity leadership in a rural Portuguese parish (Raimonda) fosters behavioral change in municipal solid waste management and generates sustainable economic benefits. Using a mixed-methods design, including a household survey and qualitative interviews that informed a cost–benefit analysis, the study finds that proximity leadership is the strongest predictor of reduced unsorted waste. High acceptance of door-to door/curbside collection and composting reinforces this behavioral change. Although economic gains are modest, avoided landfill costs are positive and enhance readiness for bio-waste valorization. The study contributes to evidence on rural waste governance and offers a replication framework for similar parishes.
- How does regional housing market sentiment affect the formation of house price expectations?Publication . Obermeier, Benedict; Godinho, FredericoThis thesis studies how regional housing market sentiment influences households’ expectations about future house-price growth. Using monthly behavioural indicators from Zillow to construct a Regional Sentiment Index and matching it to individual expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the analysis links local market conditions to subjective beliefs across states. A national sentiment measure from Fannie Mae serves as a benchmark. Results show that regional sentiment strongly predicts expected price growth, while national sentiment contributes little. Further analysis reveals marked differences across states: sentiment plays a much stronger role in places with more volatile housing markets, while expectations in more stable states react only modestly.
- How basic human values shape preferences for redistributionPublication . Correia, Rita Dray; Gouveia, Ana FontouraRedistribution is an important element of public policy in most advanced economies. Understanding preferences for redistribution is therefore crucial for informed policy decisions. This thesis examines how basic human values shape redistribution support and how this relationship is conditioned by political orientation and institutional trust. Using individual-level data for 30European countries, results show that universalism—value emphasizing concern for others’ welfare—is positively correlated with redistribution support, while security—prioritizing safety and stability—exhibits weaker and more conditional effects. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for political and institutional processes when linking values to individual redistributive preferences.