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An analysis of Ecuador’s real effective exchange rate under dollarization
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Resumo(s)
A time-series ARDL model produced an estimated REER misalignment that was larger in its
overvaluation than the estimated overvaluations of the EQCHANGE database and the IMF
reports. All three estimates corroborated that movement of REER after the 2014-2016 decline in
oil prices deviated from what the macroeconomic fundamentals would justify.
An analysis, rooted in separate evaluations by the IMF, of dollarization’s role in Ecuador’s
overvalued REER through an appreciation of the dollar and unsynchronized business cycles. The
implications of a persistently overvalued REER are varied, but its effect on competitiveness and
productivity of tradables is noteworthy given Ecuador’s low-complexity exports.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Macroeconomics Real effective exchange rate Dollarization Ecuador