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Refugees and Reactions: Electoral Responses to asylum seekers’ presence in Italian municipalities
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This research investigates the electoral effects of hosting specific asylum reception cen ters (Centri di Accoglienza Straordinaria, CAS) in Italian municipalities. Using propensity score matching, it estimates the impact of local exposure to refugee reception on far-right
vote shares in the 2018 and 2022 national elections. Results show that reception center pres ence increases support for far-right parties, regardless of CAS-to-population ratio. Over time, partisan shifts emerge within the far-right bloc, and effects vary by region. The find ings contribute to understanding how local migration exposure influences political behavior in both the short and long term.
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Asylum seekers Refugee reception Voting behavior Attitudes Toward Refugees