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Unveiling the international nature of Portugal´s business cycle
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We examine the international nature of Portugal’s business cycles across a sample of 6countries, representing the main trading partners. Using two measures of economic activ-ity, Gross Domestic Product index (GDP) and Industrial Production index (IP), for quar-terly and monthly frequencies, we produce business cycles chronologies. Then, using a bi-nary measure of association for expansion and contraction regimes, we measure the degreeof synchronization between the main trading partners business cycles and the Portuguesecounterpart. Results show that Spain, Germany and France have a higher degree of asso-ciation with Portugal’s business cycle, in terms of GDP. In terms of IP, when controllingfor the idiosyncratic variation present in the series, Spain and France sustain the previousresults, with Great Britain emerging as a relevant country.
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Business cycles International transmission of turning points Portugal