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FinTech valuation: developing a structured approach to growth estimation and regulatory risk integration in DCF models

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This paper proposes an enhanced DCF valuation framework tailored to FinTech firms by addressing two key limitations: unrealistic growth assumptions and the exclusion of regulatory risk. It introduces an empirically fitted S-curve to capture nonlinear growth and a Regulatory Risk Premium (RRP) scorecard to adjust the cost of equity based on jurisdiction-specific regulation. Applied to Klarna, Revolut, and Nexi, the model improves valuation accuracy and realism. Results show that traditional models can significantly misprice FinTechs, especially in early-stage or high-risk regulatory environments. The framework offers a transparent, data-driven approach for valuing innovation-driven financial firms.

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Valuation Corporate finance Fintech Regulation CEMS MIM

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