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The relation between politics and finance - political agreement and the stock market
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This thesis analyzes the relation between political agreement measured by government popularity and abnormal stock market returns. Evidence from a study of daily cumulative abnormal returns following 100 events and from a market-level OLS regression with monthly frequency suggests that a relation does exist. Shocks to government popularity produce significant cumulative abnormal returns in the short term. As the price level change sup on political shocks, abnormal returns in the following month are weakly negative due to the readjustment of expected returns.
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Abnormal returns Government popularity Political sentiment Event study