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Understanding business cycles: credit supply, household debt and financial crises in Portugal
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Resumo(s)
Throughout the last century, severe financial crises hit the financial markets, whose effects then spread all over the world. Taking the recent example of the 2008 subprime crisis, it is now clear it had its main drivers in excess credit supply and record household debt, which had been spiking since the 80’s and 90’s decades.
Allied to weak risk management policies and the deregulation in financial markets, along with subprime credit concession and speculation regarding complex financial products, the households’ debt levels rose to a point that helped generate one of the greatest financial crises in history, whose effects were felt around the globe.
From the moment these crises happened, various authors studied and analyzed the reasons behind the events leading to them, and how they reached the magnitude to cause such an impact. Several studies concerning households’ indebtedness and credit supply were made regarding many countries and provide a closer look at how these indicators are related and how they react in periods marked by financial crises as the ones described above. Some of them were able to prove that, indeed, there is a connection not only between them, but also with financial markets liberalization and weak risk management policies.
After establishing a relationship between credit supply and household debt, and connecting both to business cycles, the core goal of this study is to evaluate the evolution of household debt in Portugal since the introduction of the Euro and which factors contributed with the most impact to that same evolution.
Our work will start with a literature review to explain the credit-driven household demand channel concept and the dynamics implied and proceed with a statistical analysis of key indicators focusing on explaining the behavior of household debt in Portugal. These will include a time-adjusted correlations analysis and a linear regression model. Finally, we will present the conclusions reached through these methods, which resulted in a good performing model composed of five independent variables explaining the evolution of household debt to GDP in Portugal in different moments in time, and present future study possibilities to enhance the knowledge on this topic.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Household Debt Credit Supply Financial Crises Business Cycles Financial Deregulation