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Effect of land use land cover changes on carbon sequestration in Germany
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Resumo(s)
Using carbon sequestration as an indicator for environmental health, it is possible to assess whether a country is on its way to achieving carbon neutrality in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. A great deal of research has been conducted to find out whether there is a relationship between LULC and carbon sequestration. In this paper we explore several scenarios and compare how much carbon would be stored under each of them. In addition, this research aims to find out how best the LULUCF sector can contribute towards a country’s goals in achieving carbon neutrality. This was conducted using two models; Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, which calculates the amount of carbon stored in a landscape and TerrSet’s Land Change Modeller, which uses a combination of neural networks and CA Markov to project future Land Use Land Cover (LULC) scenarios. From the documentation of the carbon trend over the 28-year period using the InVEST model, the study finds that between the years of 1990 and 2018, the amount of carbon stored increased by 0.15%. Under the Business as Usual scenario projection there is an increase of 0.22% by the year 2048. In the development scenario we see a decrease of 0.96% and finally in the two conservation scenarios the carbon stock increases by 4.16% and 0.41% respectively. These results suggest that the scenario which would be most beneficial to Germany would be the first conservation scenario. The results of this study highlight the importance of the LULUCF sector in mitigating climate change. Therefore, they can be used to provide informed decision making to spatial planners and land management stakeholders during the development of future land use planning policies.
Descrição
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
Palavras-chave
Carbon sequestration InVEST model Geographic Information Systems TerrSet’s Land Change Modeller