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Transition to a Low Carbon Energy System: Looking ahead on regional needs for minerals and materials
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Resumo(s)
Global civilization needs to change. Current pollution levels are not sustainable or reversible, but there is the possibility of slowing down the effects of global warming. Within the different contributors to global air pollution, those connected to the energy sector (transport and electricity generation) represent a slice of approximately 60% of the total emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). This dissertation focuses on exactly these two subsectors and the required transition to a low-carbon energy system. This dissertation uses scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the ETP 2017 and analyses potential bottleneck occurrences for 31 materials ( bauxite, boron, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gallium, germanium, gold, graphite, indium, iron, lead, lithium, magnesite, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, niobium, palladium, selenium, silver, tantalum, tellurium, tin, titanium, tungsten, vanadium, zinc, zircon and rare earths elements) essential for the low carbon technologies considered: wind power, solar power, hydro power, nuclear energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, carbon capture and storage, electric mobility and electricity storage batteries. The quantification was made at a global scale and separately for ten regions of the world (ASEAN, EU, China, USA, India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico and Africa+) as well as for the OECD and non-OECD groups in terms of needs of materials versus their extraction in their respective regions. The materials most critical to each region and the risk of obtaining all the necessary materials were identified, according to IEA ETP’17 scenarios. The energy consumption for the extraction and concentration of the total materials is also estimated. It was concluded that the annual average for the period of 2055-2060, to install between [32 to 58.3 million] of electric vehicles and [458.1 to 469.6 GW] of non-fossil electricity production technologies, estimated by the IEA, corresponds to a total [19,585,988 and 25,430,698 t] of materials which represents an average annual consumption [6 to 10.5 times] higher than the average annual consumption for the 2014-2025 period for these technologies, according to the three scenarios (RTS, 2DS and B2DS). Solar PV Thin-Film technologies and electric vehicles create the biggest problems at the global level in terms of material availability. Tellurium, gallium, indium are the most critical materials used in thin-film PV and lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earth the most critical used in electric vehicles. On a regional scale, it is concluded that among the regions studied, India is the region most dependent on materials import for the installation of low-carbon technologies that would allow expectable growth in electricity consumption, positioning itself as the region with the highest theoretical risk. Materials such as copper, nickel, molybdenum and lead would probably need to significantly increase global production and/or recycling rates. In this analysis the potential effect of recycling, the potential for substitution or efficiency in the use of materials was not considered which may overestimate the overall material requirements.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
energy transition critical materials regional demand low carbon technologies ETP IEA