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Impact of land cover changes on carbon stock trends in Kenya using free open data
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
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| 21.35 MB | Adobe PDF |
Autores
Resumo(s)
Terrestrial carbon stock estimates information has signi cant importance in planning
decisions for amicable mitigation of global warming and climate change related disasters.
However, conventional estimation methods are usually expensive and time demanding
particularly on national or regional scales. Therefore, this study sought to
estimate and analyze carbon stock changes in Kenya as a consequence of land cover
change (LCC) using open data and software to provide a ordable and timely solutions.
Using Random Forest (RF) decision trees, the land cover for 2028 was modelled from
2004 and 2016 land cover under Business as Usual (BAU) and an alternative, Reducing
of Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD+) scenarios. The
modelled land cover maps were thereafter input in InVEST carbon model for estimation
and valuation of carbon stock between 2004 and 2028. The results show a 16% decline
in carbon stock between 2004 and 2028 with a likelihood of losing up to 21 billion US$
under BAU scenario at a national level. On a regional scale, the results revealed a
gradual decline in carbon stock in the Coastal and Central regions of the study area
while other regions exhibited mixed results. However, the trend can be reversed by
implementation of REDD+ scenario with a possible increase of 1.6% between 2016 and
2028, translating to a gain of approximately 1 billion US$. This study contributes to
the understanding of spatiotemporal carbon stock changes under di erent scenarios for
e ective spatial planning, land use policy development and keeping balances during
natural resource utilization.
Descrição
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
Palavras-chave
Ecosystems services InVEST carbon model Land cover changes modelling Random Forest Decision Trees REDD+