Playing the Devil’s Advocate in Facilitated System Dynamics Modelling Processes: The Case of the UK Retrofit System

Abstract

One of the most important emitters of CO2 is the building stock, in particular the residential one. Although technical potential to increase buildings’ energy efficiency is available, a gap between actual and potential implementation persists and policymakers worldwide continuously try to explore new tools to support the retrofit uptake. Within this context, the UK committed itself to ambitious carbon emission reductions by 2050 and there the housing stock is believed responsible for about 29% of total emissions. The main instruments used by British policymakers were energy obligations schemes and despite these policies performed relatively well, they were not able to substantially support the deep retrofit uptake necessary to reach 2050 targets. In late 2012, a new market-based policy, called the Green Deal, was launched with the goal to substitute all the previous mechanisms and support the uptake of millions of retrofit measures, but it was a huge failure. The causes were partially identified in the lack of knowledge available on the dynamics involved. Moreover, British policymakers began to explore two new financial policies, stamp duty rebate and green mortgages, which systemic impact was never assessed. Hence, the objectives of the present dissertation were to uncover these dynamics related to British homeowners retrofit uptake, to evaluate the impacts of the two new policies, and, since the study was conducted a participatory system dynamics approach, to test if an adaptation of the traditional Devil’s Advocate script, in which the facilitators left their neutral role and act as the missing stakeholders, would be a successful way to tackle homogeneity in participatory workshops. This last was formulated since the research context posed this methodological challenge. The study was conducted in a joint project between University College London and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in which only policymakers could attend the workshops because of the confidentiality and time constraints, creating a situation of homogeneity that could had undermined outcomes’ quality. In the literature there were not techniques available to overtake the problem, therefore the new setting was developed and used. Although playing the Devil’s Advocate appeared to be challenging to facilitators, it proved to be successful and increased the heterogeneity in the room. The research resulted in a quantified model that depicted the dynamics related to British homeowner retrofit uptake. The study highlighted affordability as a necessary condition but not enough to raise retrofit: popularity and non-financial attractiveness are two factors that deeply drive measures uptake. The two tested policies showed low direct impacts on the system since they target a small segment of population. Nonetheless, indirect effects related to additional financial benefits may increase policies’ impact, although these effects are strongly dependent on the time markets need to perceived policy changes. No silver bullets are available in policymakers’ toolbox and a combination of policy instruments is necessary. Specifically, financial policies need to be integrated with interventions aimed to increase popularity and non-financial attractiveness of retrofit measures.